Home Page for Statistics-OR 155,

Introduction to Statistics,

Section 2,   Spring 2007

Course Handouts and Graphics:

42. Notes for Thursday, Apr. 12: http://stat-or.unc.edu/webspace/postscript/marron/Teaching/stor155-2007/Stor155-07-04-12.ppt,

41.    Homework #13, due Thursday, Apr.  17 (draft):  http://stat-or.unc.edu/webspace/postscript/marron/Teaching/stor155-2007/Stor155-07HW13.doc

40. Midterm II:

Exam: http://stat-or.unc.edu/webspace/postscript/marron/Teaching/stor155-2007/Stor155-07Midterm2.doc

Solutions: http://stat-or.unc.edu/webspace/postscript/marron/Teaching/stor155-2007/Stor155-07Midterm2Solution.doc

39. Old Midterm II Examinations:

Exam from 2005: http://stat-or.unc.edu/webspace/postscript/marron/Teaching/stor155-2007/Stat31Midterm2.doc

Solutions from 2005: http://stat-or.unc.edu/webspace/postscript/marron/Teaching/stor155-2007/Stat31Midterm2Solution.doc

Exam from 2000: http://stat-or.unc.edu/webspace/postscript/marron/Teaching/stor155-2007/Stat31Midterm2old1.doc

Solutions from 2000: http://stat-or.unc.edu/webspace/postscript/marron/Teaching/stor155-2007/Stat31Midterm2old1Solution.doc

38. Notes for Thursday, Apr. 5: http://stat-or.unc.edu/webspace/postscript/marron/Teaching/stor155-2007/Stor155-07-04-05.ppt, Inference for Proportions, Hypothesis Tests, 2 Sample Proportions Inference, Skipped, 2-way Tables, Sliced populations in 2 different ways, Look for independence of factors, Chi Square Hypothesis test

37.    Homework #12, due Thursday, Apr.  12 (final):  http://stat-or.unc.edu/webspace/postscript/marron/Teaching/stor155-2007/Stor155-07HW12.doc

36. Notes for Tuesday, Apr. 3: http://stat-or.unc.edu/webspace/postscript/marron/Teaching/stor155-2007/Stor155-07-04-03.ppt, Paired Diff’s vs. Unmatched Samples, Compare with example, Showed graphic about Paired often better, Review of Gray Level Hypo Testing, Inference for Proportions, Confidence Intervals, Sample Size Calculation

35. Notes for Thursday, Mar. 29: http://stat-or.unc.edu/webspace/postscript/marron/Teaching/stor155-2007/Stor155-07-03-29.ppt, 2 Sample Inference, Paired Differences, Apply 1 sample methods to differences, Unmatched Samples, Requires deeper methods, Work through TTEST

34.    Homework #11, due Thursday, Apr.  5 (final):  http://stat-or.unc.edu/webspace/postscript/marron/Teaching/stor155-2007/Stor155-07HW11.doc

33. Notes for Tuesday, Mar. 27: http://stat-or.unc.edu/webspace/postscript/marron/Teaching/stor155-2007/Stor155-07-03-27.ppt, T distribution (handles unknown σ), Computation with TDIST & TINV, Confidence Intervals, Hypothesis Tests

32. Notes for Thursday, Mar. 22: http://stat-or.unc.edu/webspace/postscript/marron/Teaching/stor155-2007/Stor155-07-03-22.ppt, Hypothesis Testing, Careful about 1-sided vs. 2-sided, Connection: CIs - Hypo Tests, 3 Traps of Hypo Testing: Statistically Sign’t ≠ Really Sign’t, Non-sign’t ≠ Nothing there, In many tests, will find some sign’t, T Distribution (handles unknown σ)

31.    Homework #10, due Thursday, Mar.  29 (final):  http://stat-or.unc.edu/webspace/postscript/marron/Teaching/stor155-2007/Stor155-07HW10.doc

30. Notes for Tuesday, Mar. 20: http://stat-or.unc.edu/webspace/postscript/marron/Teaching/stor155-2007/Stor155-07-03-20.ppt, Hypothesis Testing, Assess strength of evidence with P-value, P-value interpretation: Yes – No, Gray – level, 1 - sided vs. 2 - sided “paradox”

29. Notes for Thursday, Mar. 8: http://stat-or.unc.edu/webspace/postscript/marron/Teaching/stor155-2007/Stor155-07-03-08.ppt, Statistical Inference, Confidence Intervals: Range of Values to reflect uncertainty, Bracket true value in 95% of repetitions, Choice of sample size, Choose n to get desired error, Hypothesis Testing, Yes – No questions, under uncertainty.

28.    Homework #9, due Thursday, Mar.  22 (final):  http://stat-or.unc.edu/webspace/postscript/marron/Teaching/stor155-2007/Stor155-07HW9.doc

27. Notes for Tuesday, Mar. 6: http://stat-or.unc.edu/webspace/postscript/marron/Teaching/stor155-2007/Stor155-07-03-06.ppt, Binomial Distribution, Normal Approximation, Continuity Correction, Proportions (different scale from “counts”), Distribution of Sample Means, Law of Averages, Part 1 , Normal Data à Normal Mean, Law of Averages, Part 2: Everything (averaged) à Normal

26.    Homework #8, due Thursday, Mar.  8 (final):  http://stat-or.unc.edu/webspace/postscript/marron/Teaching/stor155-2007/Stor155-07HW8.doc

25. Notes for Thursday, Mar. 1: http://stat-or.unc.edu/webspace/postscript/marron/Teaching/stor155-2007/Stor155-07-03-01.ppt, Interpreted Midterm Results, Variance of Random Variables, From Probability Table, Properties: Ignores shift, Multiples comes through squared, Sum when independent, Sampling Distributions, Binomial Distribution, Calculate Probs with BINOMDIST, Mean & Standard Deviation

24. Midterm I:

Exam: http://stat-or.unc.edu/webspace/postscript/marron/Teaching/stor155-2007/Stor155-07Midterm1.doc

Solutions: http://stat-or.unc.edu/webspace/postscript/marron/Teaching/stor155-2007/Stor155-07Midterm1Solution.doc

23. Notes for Thursday, Feb. 22: http://stat-or.unc.edu/webspace/postscript/marron/Teaching/stor155-2007/Stor155-07-02-22.ppt, Continuous Random Variables, Probabilities modeled with areas, Normal Curve, Calculate in Excel: NORMDIST & NORMINV, Means, i.e. Expected Values, Useful for “average over many plays”, Independence of Random Variables

22.    Homework #7, due Thursday, Mar.  1 (final):  http://stat-or.unc.edu/webspace/postscript/marron/Teaching/stor155-2007/Stor155-07HW7.doc

21. Notes for Tuesday, Feb. 20: http://stat-or.unc.edu/webspace/postscript/marron/Teaching/stor155-2007/Stor155-07-02-20.ppt, Pepsi Challenge: When are results “significant” vs. “random”?, Independence, Conditional Prob’s = Unconditional Prob’s, Special case of and rule (of probability), Random Variables, Discrete vs. Continuous, Discrete: Summarize probability with table, Sum entries to calculate prob’s

20. Notes for Thursday, Feb. 15: http://stat-or.unc.edu/webspace/postscript/marron/Teaching/stor155-2007/Stor155-07-02-15.ppt, Big Rules of Probability: Not Rule ( 1 – P{opposite}), Or Rule (glasses – football), And rule (multiply conditional prob’s), Use in combination for real power, Bayes Rule, Turn around conditional probabilities, Write hard ones in terms of easy ones, Recall surprising disease testing result

19.    Homework #6, due Thursday, Feb.  22 (final):  http://stat-or.unc.edu/webspace/postscript/marron/Teaching/stor155-2007/Stor155-07HW6.doc

18. Notes for Tuesday, Feb. 13: http://stat-or.unc.edu/webspace/postscript/marron/Teaching/stor155-2007/Stor155-07-02-13.ppt, Probability Theory, Foundations of Probability, Events, Sample Space, Probability Function, Simple Random Sampling (count samples), Big Rules of Probability: Not Rule ( 1 – P{opposite}), Or Rule

17. Old Midterm Examinations:

Exam from 2005: http://stat-or.unc.edu/webspace/postscript/marron/Teaching/stor155-2007/Stat31Midterm1-2000.doc

Solutions from 2005: http://stat-or.unc.edu/webspace/postscript/marron/Teaching/stor155-2007/Stat31Midterm1-2000Solution.doc

Exam from 2000: http://stat-or.unc.edu/webspace/postscript/marron/Teaching/stor155-2007/Stat31Midterm1-2005.doc

Solutions from 2000: http://stat-or.unc.edu/webspace/postscript/marron/Teaching/stor155-2007/Stat31Midterm1-2005Solution.doc

16. Notes for Thursday, Feb. 8: http://stat-or.unc.edu/webspace/postscript/marron/Teaching/stor155-2007/Stor155-07-02-08.ppt, Producing Data: How to Sample?, Placebos, Double Blind Experiment, Random Sampling, Statistical Inference, Population “parameters”, Sample “statistics” (keep these separate), Probability Theory

15.    Homework #5, due Thursday, Feb.  15 (final):  http://stat-or.unc.edu/webspace/postscript/marron/Teaching/stor155-2007/Stor155-07HW5.doc

14. Notes for Tuesday, Feb. 6: http://stat-or.unc.edu/webspace/postscript/marron/Teaching/stor155-2007/Stor155-07-02-06.ppt, Producing Data, How to Sample?, History of Presidential Election Polls, Random Sampling, Designed Experiments, Treatments & Levels, Controls, Randomization

13. Notes for Thursday, Feb. 1: http://stat-or.unc.edu/webspace/postscript/marron/Teaching/stor155-2007/Stor155-07-02-01.ppt, Linear Regression, Fit a line to data, Least Squares Prediction, Residual Diagnostic Plot, Producing Data, How to Sample?, History of Presidential Election Polls

12.    Homework #4, due Thursday, Feb.  8 (final):  http://stat-or.unc.edu/webspace/postscript/marron/Teaching/stor155-2007/Stor155-07HW4.doc

11. Notes for Tuesday, Jan. 30: http://stat-or.unc.edu/webspace/postscript/marron/Teaching/stor155-2007/Stor155-07-01-30.ppt, Normal Distribution: Interpretation: 68%-95%-99.7% rule, Computation of areas (frequencies), Inverse Normal area computation, Diagnostics (for Normal approximation), Normal Quantile plot (linear?), Relations between variables, Scatterplots – useful visualization

10. Notes for Thursday, Jan. 25: http://stat-or.unc.edu/webspace/postscript/marron/Teaching/stor155-2007/Stor155-07-01-25.ppt, Normal Distribution: Interpretation: 68%-95%-99.7% rule, Computation of areas (frequencies), Inverse Normal area computation, Diagnostics (for Normal approximation), Normal Quantile plot (linear?), Relations between variables, Scatterplots – useful visualization

9.    Homework #3, due Thursday, Feb.  1 (final):  http://stat-or.unc.edu/webspace/postscript/marron/Teaching/stor155-2007/Stor155-07HW3.doc

8. Notes for Tuesday, Jan. 23: http://stat-or.unc.edu/webspace/postscript/marron/Teaching/stor155-2007/Stor155-07-01-23.ppt, Reviewed Excel Computation of: Time Plots (i.e. Time Series), Histograms, Modelling Distributions: Densities (Areas), Normal Density Curve (very useful model), Fitting Normal Densities, (using mean and s.d.)

7. Notes for Thursday, Jan. 18: http://stat-or.unc.edu/webspace/postscript/marron/Teaching/stor155-2007/Stor155-07-01-18.ppt, Numerical Summaries of Data: Center: Mean, Medial, Spread: Range, Variance, S.D., IQR, 5 Number Summary & Outlier Rule, Transformation & Summaries

6.    Homework #2, due Thursday, Jan.  25 (final):  http://stat-or.unc.edu/webspace/postscript/marron/Teaching/stor155-2007/Stor155-07HW2.doc

5. Notes for Tuesday, Jan. 16: http://stat-or.unc.edu/webspace/postscript/marron/Teaching/stor155-2007/Stor155-07-01-16.ppt, Distributions (how are data “spread out”?), Visual Display: Histograms, Binwidth is critical, Time Plots = Time Series, Course Organization & Website

4. Homework #1, due Thursday, Jan.  18 (final): http://stat-or.unc.edu/webspace/postscript/marron/Teaching/stor155-2007/Stor155-07HW1.doc

3.    Homework Class Problem #1, due Thursday, Jan.  18:  http://stat-or.unc.edu/webspace/postscript/marron/Teaching/stor155-2007/Stor155-07HWC1.doc

2.   Notes for Thursday, Jan. 11: http://stat-or.unc.edu/webspace/postscript/marron/Teaching/stor155-2007/Stor155-07-01-11.ppt, What is Statistics?, Data types and structure, Get going in EXCEL, Exploratory Data Analysis, Bar Graphs

1.   Initial Handouts (mostly about how to access this web page & Student Questionnaire):  http://stat-or.unc.edu/webspace/postscript/marron/Teaching/stor155-2007/Stor155-07Info.doc

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Syllabus:    (parts of Moore and McCabe likely will be covered)

Chapter:                     Sections:

       1                                1, 2, 3

       2                                1, 2, 3, 4, 5

       3                                1, 2, 3, 4

       4                                1, 2, 3, 4

       5                                1, 2

       6                                1, 2, 3, 4

       7                                1

       8                                1

(& maybe)

       9                                1, 2

       10                              1

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Dates of Examinations:

•        Midterm I:    Tuesday, Feb. 27
•        Midterm II:    Tuesday, Apr 10
•        Final:    Tuesday, May 8,   8:00 - 11:00

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Course Information:

Instructor: J. S. Marron, Professor

Email: marron@email.unc.edu    (checked regularly, preferred for most questions about homework)

Office:   Smith 309

Phones:    Office:    919-962-2188      Home:   919-493-2844      FAX:   919-962-2188

Formal Office Hours:      Tuesday  9:00 - 10:00,     Thursday   12:00 - 1:00

Informal Office Hours:      When I am in my office (priority to those with appointments), and by email appointment

Instructional Assistant:   Wenjie Chen, wenjiec@email.unc.edu,    Howell 204B,    Office Hour: 10:30-11:30 Wednesday Phone 919-962-1359

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Class Meetings:

            T-Th 2:00 - 3:15,    Howell 104

Class Waiting List:

          Go to see: Ms. Charlotte Rogers
          Office:    Smith  104A
          Phone:   962-2307
          Email:   crogers@email.unc.edu

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Grading:    Based on:   

1. Homework      20%
2. Midterm I        20%
3. Midterm II       20%
4. Final Exam (cumulative)     40%

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Homework:

Critical to effective learning in this course, very strongly connected with final grade

       Forms basis of examinations    (all are "twiddles" of HW problems)

       Assigned Daily, collection for each week is due Thursday on the following week, at the beginning of class

No late homework accepted, lowest 2 scores dropped

       Notes:

· Readability is your responsibility

· Highlight your numerical answer

· Never turn in more than one page per problem (or no credit given)

· In Excel, highlight a block, and try "Alt, File, Print, Print What: Selection".

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Textbook:

    Moore, D. S. and McCabe, G. P. (2006) Introduction to the Practice of Statistics, 5^th edition, W. H. Freeman.

            This is the main textbook.  Well written (much better than most of its type).
Major source of HW problems.

            Suggested minimal approach to course:  

· Listen to what happens in class

· Do HW promptly

· Resolve questions soon

· If you feel yourself falling behind, then catch up using text book.

             High End approach to course:

• Explore “Student Tools” on Textbook Publisher’s Website
• In addition: read text, in parallel, for an alternate viewpoint

    Dawson, L. G. (2006) Excel Manual for Moore and McCabe's Introduction to the Practice of Statistics, 5^th Edition, W. H. Freeman.

           This gives useful introductory material for the use of Microsoft Excel, and for some HW assignments. Use as needed depending on your background.

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Internet and Email Access:

1.    Access to this web page is essential for this course.  Many important things, such as lecture notes, and HW assignments will be posted here.

2.  Class Use of Email:

• Allows me to "broadcast" emails to all class members.
• Essential for staying on top of course announcements (e.g. cancelled classes, discovered errors on HW, changes made to web page, etc.)
• Forum for tips on HW problems:

· Please Email questions to me

· Some I reply to personally

· Many other replies get broadcast, when answer can help everybody

· Good manners:  put problem number in subject line 

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Computation:

• "A tool, not an end in itself"
• “Intended to facilitate thought, not replace it"
• Never done in class, even for exams (so don't bring your CCI Laptop)
• Done with Microsoft EXCEL, available on your CCI Computer.
• EXCEL is "user friendly", so if you have experience using computers, you may be able to just start using EXCEL.
• If you are wondering "how do I do that?", the Introduction chapter of the Dawson (2006)  text above provides well organized access to a number of important topics (some of these will be covered in HW).
• General rules for when you encounter a problem:

· "Just try something"

· Ask a friend, or somebody hanging around

· Seek "more official" help.

• Caution:  Numerical answers to HW problems will be given.  Avoid the trap of "just twiddling EXCEL until you get the right number" (because you can't do that on the exam).

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Access to Textbook Data

• A lot of "busy work retyping" can be avoided by "importing data"
• There are several ways to get this:
• Copy the files from the CDrom that came with the text.

· Versions of the data, already in EXCEL are there

· Look in the directory:

\PCDataSets\Excel

· You can copy these as needed, or copy them all to your hard disk

· To work a HW problem, copy this file to where you would like to work on it, and double click (to open EXCEL)

· You will want to save your work as you go along (in EXCEL, alt, file, save)

• Access the data using the HTML Interface on the CD

· On the CD, click the file IPS5e.htm

· Click on “Datasets”

· Click on “Excel format (zip archive)”

· Proceed as above.

• Get the data from the Internet (especially useful if you don’t have the CD).

· From the Publisher’s Website

· Click on Student Tools: Data Sets

· Proceed as above.

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Additional Sources of Help

Open Tutorial sessions

<>    Place:        Smith 107
<>   Times:        Sun-Thu:           7:00PM - 8:00PM
                      (exceptions:  days before those days when the University is closed,
                           e.g. Martin Luther King Day Day, Mon, Jan. 15
                                 Spring Break, Sat, Mar10 - Sun, Mar 18
                                 Good Friday, Fri, Apr 6)

The Learning Center offers:   Peer Tutoring

(Locations and Hours to be Announced)